SCENARIO AVAILABILITY
Coverage by climate category
Share of vetted cases reporting the selected variable set
Reporting Not reported
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GLOBAL SCENARIOS / OBSERVABLE EVIDENCE
Explore what the models
actually report.
Where are residual emissions identifiable? What can published scenarios tell us about carbon removal? This atlas keeps observed results, model assumptions and unresolved accounting boundaries visibly separate.
WORLD REGIONAR6 climate-vetted cohort · 2050Reporting coverage, not physical gross emissions
SCIENTIFIC ACCOUNTING
I3/ 0
No verified physical partition
Co-reporting of CO₂, land, DAC, BECCS and fossil CCS does not establish exhaustive positive emissions or disjoint net atmospheric removals.
Cases selected for review24
CEMICS operational formulaReproduced
Independent I3 sign-off0
WHAT WE CAN SAY
Three levels of evidence
01Reported net CO₂
A signed emissions series is an observation, not an exhaustive gross partition.
02Technology reporting
A named capture or sequestration variable does not alone confirm durable removal.
03Physical reconciliation
Independent partitions require documented flows, source precision and review.
RESEARCH PRINCIPLE
A reporting gap is a result worth publishing.
Not identifiable from published data is an explicit scientific conclusion—not a reason to construct an attractive but unsupported number.
IPCC AR6 / WORLD REGION
Scenario coverage
Climate-vetted model–scenario records with explicit reported values in 2050. Zero is counted as reported; missing remains missing.
OPTIONAL REPRODUCIBLE COVERAGE / 2030–2100
Four-year reporting explorer
Read from a checksummed coverage-only artifact when a source-audited release is available
Checking for a frozen, checksum-verified public coverage release…
No independent physical I3 classification is inferred from variable presence.
C1–C8 / 2050
Reporting coverage
SELECTED METRIC
—
Cases reporting field
Share of 1,202 climate-vetted World model–scenario pairs.
Reported presence is never a physical gross/CDR accounting pass.
ORIGINAL CATEGORY COUNTS
Source-data table
| Category | Eligible | Reported | Not reported | Share |
|---|
SOURCE INVENTORY
Available variable labels
Across all 2,298 World scenario pairs, including non-vetted records
HISTORICAL CD-LINKS / TUTORIAL DATA
Model comparison
Source-reported 2050 net CO₂ for three historical IAM versions and six identical scenario labels. Not gross emissions, not a climate-vetted AR6 cross-model cohort.
World · 2050 · Mt CO₂/yr
SOURCE-REPORTED NET CO₂
Model spread
These are source-observations. Model structure and assumptions differ; the differences are not causally attributable to any single technology.
NON-CO₂ / METRIC ACCOUNTABILITY
N₂O metric sensitivity
Same reported N₂O mass, two IPCC AR6 GWP100 conventions. Changing the weighting factor does not reduce physical emissions.
MEAN REPORTED N₂O-CO₂e / 2050
Original vs corrected convention
Original GWP100 (273) Corrected (267)
Why is CH₄ not shown? The reported source does not resolve fossil and non-fossil methane origins sufficiently for the selected factor mapping. This atlas does not invent a comprehensive GHG CO₂e balance.
CONTROLLED MODEL / EDUCATIONAL WESTEROS
MESSAGEix experiment
Three author-reported locally solved cases in the fictional Westeros training model, MESSAGEix 3.11.1 / GAMS 54.6.0 / CPLEX. Not independently reproduced and not an IAM forecast.
SAVED SOLVER OBJECTIVES
Isolating the effect of a CO₂ cap
The emissions-bookkeeping-only control has the same stored objective as baseline. The bound-only change increases the objective in this small educational model. Values are in native model objective units, not currency or a carbon price.
Important distinction. The numerical cap was saturated in the saved solution; the shadow carbon price was not established. These are fictional technology/model years and do not represent global decarbonization costs.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS / EVIDENCE INVENTORY
Innovation-gap atlas
Browse 12 source-linked mitigation hypotheses. These are proposed research priorities, not observed technology effects, validated deployment opportunities or causal contributions to global residual emissions.
12 hypotheses
Evidence boundary. A cited IPCC chapter identifies the general research topic. This register does not claim an experimental result, maturity assessment, quantified mitigation potential or a causal share of residual emissions.
RESEARCH OPERATIONS / PATHWAYSHUB
Workstream tracker
Versioned milestone states from the paired operations repository. Reported implementation states do not constitute scientific endorsement or authenticated human review.
AUTHOR-REPORTED MILESTONES
Delivery status
| ID | Work package | Recorded status |
|---|
Coordination evidence. Simulated submissions prove software behavior, not genuine multi-team cooperation. External participant claims require their documented actions and consent.
SCIENTIFIC GOVERNANCE / SOURCES
Methods & sources
Every graphic carries its source class, uncertainty and interpretation boundary. An unreviewed model-series relationship is never silently promoted to a physical carbon balance.
SCIENTIFIC ESTIMAND
Identifiability ladder
I0Insufficient critical data
Source coverage and provenance only. Scientific review state is tracked separately.
I1Net emissions
Reported signed series, without separable gross or removals.
I2Partial partition
Named technology or land terms, with explicit missingness or overlap.
I3Reconciled physical flows
Only exhaustive, nonoverlapping, source-precision checked inputs.
SOURCE / SHA256
Coverage provenance
RESEARCH FILE / ARC24-03
A source name is not a physical identity
In the original CEMICS record, regrowth-derived CDR differs from reported Land Use and Afforestation in all nine tested years. The two land-sequestration exports are themselves identical across nine years and must not be added together.
OPEN EVIDENCE DOSSIER ↗SOURCE CREDIT / USAGE RIGHTS
AR6 database attribution
Independent derived reporting-presence aggregates from Byers et al. (2022), AR6 Scenarios Database, v1.1, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium and IIASA. Original scenario data copyright belongs to the contributing institutions and modelling teams. The source has been transformed into category-level counts and fractions; original scenario records are not redistributed here.
The AR6-specific adapted CC BY 4.0 license restricts substantial raw-data redistribution and requires attribution. Independent work; not endorsed by IIASA or IPCC. The source download route is author-reported; independently authenticated publisher receipts and I3 physical-flow review remain outstanding. Read the release gate audit.
Independent project. No IIASA/IPCC endorsement, no official AR6 redistributor status, no restricted scenario records in this bundle, and no verified I3 physical-emissions partition.